Technical appendix

Bitcoin Network Basics

A new block is released roughly every 10 minutes.

Each block currently carries a reward of 3.125 BTC (since the April 2024 halving).

On average, there are about 144 blocks per day and 52,560 blocks per year.

Device Speed vs. Network

One Shot Miner: ~1 MH/s (1 million guesses per second).

Bitcoin network (as of late Sep 2025): ~1.1 ZH/s (1.1×10²¹ guesses per second).

Your fraction of the network: ~1 in 1.1 quadrillion per block.

Probability Calculations

Formula:

$$p_{\text{block}} = \frac{h_{\text{device}}}{H_{\text{network}}}$$

Example (1 MH/s device, network ~1.1 ZH/s):

Per block: ~1 in 1.1 quadrillion chance.

Per day (~144 blocks): ~1 in 7 trillion chance.

Per year (~52,560 blocks): ~1 in 21 billion chance.

These odds shift as the Bitcoin network hashrate grows or shrinks, but they remain extraordinarily low for small miners.